Revenues are expected to total at least €5.3 billion, a ~+2.5% (previous indication between +1.5% and +2.5%) compared with 2018, underpinned by the strengthening of High Value (weight on revenues confirmed at ~67%).
Total volumes expected to decline by -2% (previous indication between -2.5% and -2%). High Value volumes are forecast to grow by ≥+7.5% (previous indication between +7.5% and +8%), greater than the market’s growth and supported by the good performance of the Replacement channel and growth of the Original Equipment channel in the second half thanks to the homologation portfolio and the contribution of new contracts in North America and APac. Standard volumes are forecast to decline by ~-11%, compared with the previous indication of -11.5% to -12%, due to a lower reduction in volumes mainly in South America.
The price/mix expected to improve by ~+4.5% (previous indication between 4.5% and 5%) due to:
- the continuation of greater price competition also in the third quarter of the year in Standard products and High Value products of lower technological content,
- the different product mix (more contained decline in Standard) and channel mix (greater weight of Original Equipment channel in second half).
Exchanges rates are seen remaining substantially stable (previous indication ~-0.5%).
The Adjusted EBIT margin expected at between >17% and 17.5% (previous guidance between 18% and 19%), considering:
- greater costs of unabsorbed fixed costs in Standard capacity, linked to lower production to reduce inventory,
- deterioration of the inflationary context, and
- the inclusion of some cost cutting initiatives, initially foreseen for 2019, in a medium term cost recovery plan which will contribute to the lowering of the break-even point already beginning from 2020 to improve competitiveness in a volatile market and macro-economic context.
The weight on High Value on Adjusted EBIT before start-up costs is expected at ~85% (in line with previous guidance and compared with around 83% in 2018).
Investments confirmed at ~€380 million euro.
The net cash flow before dividends is estimated at between ~€330 million and ~€350 million (previous indication €350 million - €380 million).
The ratio between the Net Financial Position and Adjusted EBITDA before start-up costs is forecast at 2.42x/2.36x (+0.17x including the impact of the adoption of the new IFRS 16 accounting principle), compared with the previous indication of 2.33x-2.20x. At the end of 2018, this indicator stood at 2.49x.
- w/o start-up costs.